Sports Betting Arbitrage

What Is Sports Betting Arbitrage?

Sports betting arbitrage involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of a sports event with different bookmakers to ensure a guaranteed profit. This behavior takes advantage of the varying odds offered by bookmakers, allowing bettors to exploit discrepancies through precise stake allocation.

This strategy, known as “sure betting” or “arbing,” depends on quick calculations and execution, as odds shift rapidly. Arbitrage bettors use software to find opportunities, but it requires effort and is often countered by stake limits or bans.

How Does Sports Betting Arbitrage Work?

Here’s a simple, step-by-step example:

1. Imagine a boxing match between two boxers, John and Paul.
2. One bookmaker offers 2/1 odds for John to win, while another offers 2.5/1 odds for Paul.
3. A gambler calculates how much to bet on each outcome to ensure a profit, no matter who wins.
4. They decide to bet $100 on John and $80.89 on Paul, for a total stake of $180.89.
5. If John wins, the gambler earns $200, making a $19.11 profit.
6. If Paul wins, they earn $202.22, resulting in a profit of $21.33.

The gambler profits regardless of which boxer wins the match, with the total return amounting to more than the total stake.

Arbitrage bettors often place large bets to guarantee a worthwhile profit, as the average percentage profit tends to be quite low.

When Does Sports Betting Arbitrage Occur?

Enthusiast sites claim arbitrage opportunities are abundant. Since most major sports events occur on weekends, the majority of arbitrage betting takes place on Saturdays and Sundays, with related sites suggesting that 80% of bets are placed on these days. Additionally, major sporting events often lead to spikes in arbitrage opportunities. Sports with straightforward outcomes, such as football, tennis and basketball are particularly popular for arbitrage betting.

To be successful in arbitrage betting, gamblers must work quickly to identify opportunities. They sometimes use automation and sports betting arbitrage software to help. Websites that promote sports betting arbitrage opportunities often claim that gamblers can expect profits of anything from 5 to 15 percent. However, more reputable sites suggest average returns of around 1.2 percent. 

At the same time, bookmakers work hard to close such gaps in odds to thwart arbitration attempts.

What Are the Consequences of Sports Betting Arbitrage?

The main consequence of sports betting arbitrage is a financial loss for bookmakers and betting sites, which leads to bookmakers imposing bans and betting limits.

Security steps taken to thwart arbitrage gamblers’ efforts could cause unnecessary friction for all bettors. For instance, false positives from automated safeguards might unintentionally impose bans or restrictions on all bettors, even those who do not engage in arbitrage betting.

Sports betting arbitrage is not illegal, in fact, this type of betting has been around for decades. Bookmakers do their best to reduce the potential for profits by charging commissions or imposing bans and restrictions on arbitrage gamblers.

How SEON Helps Detect Sports Betting Arbitrage

Since identifying arbitrage opportunities and placing the bets requires extensive research and quick thinking, arbitrage bettors often use online software to calculate opportunities and place bets.

SEON’s advanced fraud detection technologies identify the discrepancies caused by such software, helping you effectively detect and mitigate these activities.

1. Through digital footprint analysis, SEON identifies users operating from unexpected or mismatched IP locations — a common tactic of arbitrage bettors who rely on VPNs to mask their real locations and bypass geographic restrictions.
2. Arbitrage bettors may use multiple accounts to place bets on opposite sides of the same event. Device intelligence allows SEON to track devices that are being used across multiple accounts, revealing potential arbitrage betting.
3. SEON’s machine learning algorithms analyze user behavior to identify patterns typical of arbitrage bettors, such as placing rapid bets across multiple markets or betting on all possible outcomes. The algorithm continuously adapts, fine-tuning its detection capabilities to counter evolving strategies used by sophisticated bettors.

This multi-layered approach ensures effective detection and mitigation of arbitrage activities.